Forum:2007 Atlantic hurricane season
October Week 4 14L.MELISSA AoI - Wave Southwest of Cape Verde Folks, here we go again (this now my second official catch phrase). Most of the models develop this one into a surface low, with GFS taking it to hurricane strength in the land of Dean, and CMC edging it towards Karen and Florida as a TS. Most of the other models surface low it (ARGH!), and it seems likely that that will happen any time now. It could also turn Karen on a course towards the US. Thoughts? [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']]Talk 14:51, 26 September 2007 (UTC) :Hmm, not bad, not bad at all. Not fully organized yet, but not bad at all. Even if this doesn't turn into a TD or storm, this could have unexpected results on Karen. - Enzo Aquarius 14:56, 26 September 2007 (UTC) ::There's actually two of them, to quote NHC: A COUPLE OF WELL-DEFINED TROPICAL WAVES ARE LOCATED OVER THE FAREASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC. BOTH SYSTEMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT AS THEY MOVE WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.RoswellAtup 15:07, 26 September 2007 (UTC) :::Whoa, two of 'em! Damn, this season just won't quit. -- [[User:SkyFury|''Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 16:29, 26 September 2007 (UTC) ::::Goddamn... This is the apocalypse, or something close. Can anyone say "Parade of Storms"? [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']]Talk 18:32, 26 September 2007 (UTC) :::::That's just a little drastic. Who knows what these things'll turn into. The could be nothing. They could all be fish-spinners. A lot of storms minus the death and destruction is the most fun to watch. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 20:45, 26 September 2007 (UTC) They actually probably will be, but you should know that the culture of most teens today is to grossly over exaggerate things until, while still being well defined, they mean something completely different. Just like Monty Python. Don't look as good now, but they've got ages of time. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']]Talk 21:21, 26 September 2007 (UTC) :From a school computer, so I have to copy and paste my sig. The models are going haywire with this one; something wicked this way comes. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']]Talk 12:00, 27 September 2007 (UTC) ::Wait, why would you have to copy and paste your sig if you're on a school computer? Bob rulz 05:23, 28 September 2007 (UTC) :::Too slow to log on. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']]Talk 13:54, 28 September 2007 (UTC) 99L.INVEST Hope I got the right storm here (if not, please move it :)), but this thing looks freaking amazing. Its got the rotation and organization, wouldn't be amazed if this actually was already a TS or TD. - Enzo Aquarius 13:01, 28 September 2007 (UTC) :(Posting from school computer; not logged on) Your damn right it looks good. This is definitely something to watch. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']]Talk 13:53, 28 September 2007 (UTC) 14L.NONAME Up on the NRL, might upgrade by 11. This might be a record on our hands. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']]Talk 14:01, 28 September 2007 (UTC) :Looks already like a TS. It's gonna go fishing though. -- WmE 14:15, 28 September 2007 (UTC) ::NHC Official. Jake52 My island 15:10, 28 September 2007 (UTC) Why would you even say that it's a record, IP? I'm getting increasingly annoyed at your childish posts. - -- This unsigned comment was added by 142.227.176.250 :I believe it is because it breaks the record of most storms formed in the month of September. I may be wrong. 67.155.250.26 16:44, 28 September 2007 (UTC) ::I still stick by my previous statement in that this storm is pretty neat, heck, it formed before NHC had a chance to put up a Tropical Cyclone Possibility area on the Mariner map. I definitely expect Tropical Storm status quite soon, though it probably already is. :P - Enzo Aquarius 17:11, 28 September 2007 (UTC) :::... What the f@#k are you talking about? Most TDs in one month (potentially) and probably most storms in one month as well. If you're going to call my post childish, I'd advise you SIGN YOUR POST like EVERYONE ELSE. So I know who to be rude to :P. Seriously though, we probably will tie the record (we have two more days) and with the other storm off the coast, we might even break it. This thing is not predicted to get any stronger than it was for the past few days; just TS and back, although I believe I have seen one model that goes crazy with it (there's usually at least one with any storm). [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']]Talk 18:57, 28 September 2007 (UTC) ::::Yup, checked, and this is '''tied' for the MOST EVER TROPICAL DEPRESSIONS IN SEPTEMBER IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']]Talk 19:26, 28 September 2007 (UTC) That's interesting, very interesting... It appears that something is causing the models to keep the forecast to the south... [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']]Talk 19:32, 28 September 2007 (UTC) :Oops, it appears Enzo put the upgrade on the wrong storm (just noticed that). I'll do a switcharoo. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']]Talk 20:34, 28 September 2007 (UTC) ::SHIPS says this thing goes into the open Atlantic, and shear kills it. Had it headed on its previous predicted track, it would have had a chance of pulling a Vince, making landfall on Spain, and possible redevelopment in the Mediterranean. Ah well, we'll see, I guess. 2007Astro'sHurricane 22:22, 28 September 2007 (UTC) :::There will never be another Vince, my friend. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']]Talk 00:25, 29 September 2007 (UTC) Tropical Storm Melissa Updated as of 5:00AM A little more strengthening is possible. At the moment it seems the steering currents are weak on it. With the use of Melissa, all three brand new names have been used this season (Andrea and Ingrid being the other two).Sarge Abernathy 09:05, 29 September 2007 (UTC) :However, Melissa may be new to the Atlantic, but not new to tropical cyclones. 1994 had a Super Typhon Melissa in the Western Pacific. Sarge Abernathy 10:22, 29 September 2007 (UTC) As a further note/idea, I suggest we all vote and send a request to the all-mighty-powers-that-be for Mother Nature to end the season for awhile here, then create a storm surprisingly on December 24th, naming it "Noel" on Christmas morning. Sarge Abernathy 09:10, 29 September 2007 (UTC) :This means that we have tied BOTH records for most storms in September (TDs and TSs)! This sure is exciting fellas! Anyway, that sounds like a good idea, but in order to make it a 2007esque deal, we'd have to agree that Noel would form in Morocco and become the first Major Mediterranean Hurricane recognized by the NHC. But not that we could do that anyway :P. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']]Talk 11:03, 29 September 2007 (UTC) ::Heh :P. NHC's predicting Melissa will be downgraded to a TD soon, may not last long. - Enzo Aquarius 15:38, 29 September 2007 (UTC) :::Eight! That's a lot of frickin' storms. Eight seems to be the magic number though. It seems as though that is the Atlantic's terminal velocity; the thou-shalt-not-pass number. Enzo, Melissa's now stronger than it has ever been according to the NHC advisory. -- [[User:SkyFury|''Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 07:34, 30 September 2007 (UTC) ::::GFDL to a hurricane, HWRF kills it, and the other models don't initialize it so they have no idea what they're talking about. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']]Talk 11:27, 30 September 2007 (UTC) :::::HWRF seems to have prevailed. Last advisory. Jake52 My island 20:47, 30 September 2007 (UTC) ::::::I think the wind shear is the one that prevailed. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 21:47, 30 September 2007 (UTC) Hey... I leave for the weekend and miss an entire tropical storm? And there are TWO IP's now? I need to stop leaving... 'Cyclone1(11:17 UTC -1/10/2007) :I know, I'm confused too, but I changed my signature for that reason and because I'm working on a project (ignore the tagline, that's just to scare people who aren't working on it away). And this thing looks pretty impressive for a dead thing. Too bad it won't redevelop, although there is a consensus of it turning into Vince area as a weak low. [[User:68-100-190-56|'''IP]](Talk) [[User:68-100-190-56/Looking_to_the_Eye_of_the_Storm|(The Project)]] 19:19, 1 October 2007 (UTC) ::Aha! I knew it! 2005's regime was to make it an unbelievably active season, 2006's regime was to make us realise what an average season really is, and this year's regime may be to make all the hurricanes male. 2007Astro'sHurricane 22:21, 1 October 2007 (UTC) Week 5 90L.INVEST AoI - Bahamas All throughout said area, there is activity going on. There seems to be a unanimous consensus of the models that a tropical storm or above storm will form there within the next day or two. Thoughts? [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']]Talk 13:58, 30 September 2007 (UTC) :Ehhh...not bad. This area's pretty iffy though, and, unless it organizes more, this won't turn into anything. Does look pretty neat although, which does remind me that some models are predicting a storm to develop in the northern Gulf of Mexico. Could be this system. - Enzo Aquarius 15:24, 30 September 2007 (UTC) ::The models tend to disagree with the eye, however. CMC takes a cat 2/3 'cane into the Pensacola area, and the GFS takes it on a Rita-esque track. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']](Talk) [[User:68-100-190-56/Looking_to_the_Eye_of_the_Storm|(The Project)]] 17:55, 30 September 2007 (UTC) :::We do appear to have a big mess in the Atlantic, don't we? There's nothing over Hispaniola, so I excluded it, but that is a large storm in the central Atlantic. It would behoove us to pay attention to this one. -- [[User:SkyFury|''Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 19:25, 30 September 2007 (UTC) ::::Nothing over Hispaniola any more, and I said FROM, not in. Tsk tsk, Eric. There's two bits two it - right off of Florida, and the one that's racing off to nowhere, which should become a strong extratrop soon, with the remaining convection spawning a low into the Gulf. But you never know, that storm there is looking ominously similar to a hook cloud right now. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']](Talk) [[User:68-100-190-56/Looking_to_the_Eye_of_the_Storm|(''The Project)]] 20:23, 30 September 2007 (UTC) :::::The thing off Florida's not impressing me, but the big-ass gale in the middle of the Atlantic is. It looks better organized that when I saw it last. -- [[User:SkyFury|''Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 21:50, 30 September 2007 (UTC) Opposite for me, because there's so little chance of it doing anything. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']](Talk) [[User:68-100-190-56/Looking_to_the_Eye_of_the_Storm|(''The Project)]] 22:44, 30 September 2007 (UTC) :Whoa-boy, CMC takes this to a hurricane then sends a cat four through the straights, and the other major models do the same thing, minus the cat four. Hold on to your shorts, here comes Noel! [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']](Talk) [[User:68-100-190-56/Looking_to_the_Eye_of_the_Storm|(The Project)]] 19:15, 1 October 2007 (UTC) 90L.INVEST Up on the NRL. I'll put up chances now: 80% TD or higher, 15% subtropical, the rest it just dies. I'm putting my bets on this being like TD10 only with a Rita-like track (not intensity, mind you!), although as this thing is looking tremendously better than it ever has before, I may improve my outlook. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']](Talk) [[User:68-100-190-56/Looking_to_the_Eye_of_the_Storm|(The Project)]] 19:22, 1 October 2007 (UTC) :(Was originally meant for posting up 90L after Jason Rees archived it - IP) It's near Florida. Could be a re-TD10. Looking well organised, heading towards Florida, up on the TWO. 2007Astro'sHurricane 22:32, 1 October 2007 (UTC) ::That was a hassle. Anyway, still looking good at 6:45 P.M. here. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']](Talk) [[User:68-100-190-56/Looking_to_the_Eye_of_the_Storm|(The Project)]] 22:44, 1 October 2007 (UTC) AoI - Karen's Remnants NHC is issuing the "may be favorable in the next few days" product, which means that this storm might have a very significant chance of redevelopment. Thoughts? [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']](Talk) [[User:68-100-190-56/Looking_to_the_Eye_of_the_Storm|(The Project)]] 21:39, 30 September 2007 (UTC) It regenerates, smacks East Coast Canada as Category 2, moving at 28 knots. Roughly same track as Juan, with cone extending 500 miles on either side of Halifax, Nova Scotia. [[User:HurricaneJosh|'PI']]Talk 01:02, 1 October 2007 (UTC) :Gee, thanks. The last thing we need up here is another Juan. Personally, I don't think it will reform. At least, not as Karen. It might merge with something else to become Noel/Olga/Whatever or it might not. We'll see. |'C A I N E R'||''ninety-one| 02:14, 1 October 2007 (UTC) ::Check the sat images... the remnants are much better looking than a day ago. Hell, even two days ago. I expect it to regenerate. 11 Pm advisory tomorrow, or 5 am / 11 am advisory on October 2nd. [[User:HurricaneJosh|'PI']]Talk 10:52, 1 October 2007 (UTC) :::I agree with Cainer on this one. Maybe a merger with that Bahama blob into a (sub) tropical entity? Remnants are off the NRL, but I still think this isn't Ingrid 2. 'Cyclone1(11:10 UTC -1/10/2007) ::::Bahama blob ain't no subtropical storm. There's no way that doesn't get tropical. But this thing could. Might merge with the low thats moving west of Florida. But for the most part this is dead(ish). [[User:68-100-190-56|'''IP]](Talk) [[User:68-100-190-56/Looking_to_the_Eye_of_the_Storm|(The Project)]] 19:17, 1 October 2007 (UTC) Retirements At A Glance It's currently peak season for the Atlantic and we've had storms from Andrea to Ingrid. My question is simple: What names do you think may stand a chance of retirement thus far? My speculation and chances are: *Andrea: 5%. May storm. Minimal damage, but indirectly responsible for 6 deaths. *Barry: 2%. Little damage and killed fewer than Andrea, although one death was direct. *Chantal: 5%. Almost completely forgettable while tropical. *Dean: 95%. Smashed Jamaica and killed 40+ total. *Erin: 20%. Added to already major flooding problem. 18 total deaths, half direct. Klaus-like. *Felix: 90%. Over 100 deaths in Nicaragua. Severe damage likely. *Gabrielle: 5%. Forgettable. *Humberto: 30%. Only one death, but going by USD values at the time of the hurricane, surpassed Diane and Lili in terms of damage, and both of these were retired. Outside shot at retirement. *Ingrid: 0%. Want to talk about your duds? *Jerry: 0%. Bigger dud than Ingrid, but odd location of formation. *Karen: SA. *Lorenzo: Some idea of damage would be nice here. So overall, I think the retirements for this year will definently include Dean and Felix. Erin may also get retired if the monetary damages from it are high enough when released and Humberto may get retired if the current estimates are correct. Any other ideas or opinions? Jake52 My island 02:08, 15 September 2007 (UTC) : I say Dean and Felix will definitely get the boot. Anything else thus far is extremely doubtful to no retirement period. - Enzo Aquarius 04:32, 15 September 2007 (UTC) ::I say Dean 75% (there have been much, much worse) and Felix 70% (same reason). Humberto 15%, Erin 9%, the others I don't see getting retired in a million years. If you want, I will say that these a wee bit conservative, and I do hope that Felix is retired, Dean maybe (since those were the nicest SOB storms I've ever followed in this basin, maybe scratch Wilma). All four of these could be conceivably retired, but I put the chances of all four at around zero. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']]Talk 11:35, 15 September 2007 (UTC) :::I think Felix has a better chance of getting retired than Dean. To be clear, I think both should be retired, but Felix is Nicaragua's worst hurricane since Joan in 1988. I rank deaths higher than damage because deaths have a greater psycological impact than damage. Retirement is based on the impact it had on a society as a whole. I believe that storms with high death tolls have a greater impact on a culture than those with just high damage. This is why the non-retirement of Hurricane Gordon infuriated me to a greater extent than most people. -- [[User:SkyFury|''Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 19:17, 15 September 2007 (UTC) ::::Just like Megadeth trying to get over Jethro Tull winning the "Heavy Metal" Grammy over them, eh? Anyway, being Cat 5 does not guarantee a retirement (see Emily; the Cleo that got the name retired was not a Cat 5 but a Cat 4 that did some damage afterward). Felix ''will be retired, and right now I'd say that Humberto is slightly more likely to be retired than Dean (if Jamaica doesn't nominate Dean for retirement, see it in 2013!). 147.70.236.93 21:18, 15 September 2007 (UTC) I never consider deaths particularly important unless they total above 300. In the case of storms like Mitch, non-retirement is not an issue, on the other hand, storms like Wilma are also guaranteed to be retired. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']]Talk 21:23, 15 September 2007 (UTC) :About Jamaica and Dean's chances, correct me if I'm wrong, but wasn't it Jamaica and not Mexico that got Gilbert canned? What I find stunning is that this season seems like a mock-up 1988 when it comes to the likely candidates for retirement. Dean was a Gilbert imitator (though not as powerful) and Felix resembled Joan (though so far not as deadly, but more powerful, plus Joan survived Central America). Jake52 My island 22:29, 15 September 2007 (UTC) ::I'd say Felix will be retired. It killed over 100 people. Dean I'd say there's about a 75% chance. I think the only other storm that really has a chance to be retired is Erin, but that's not likely. What did Humberto do to get retired? I don't see it. Bob rulz 22:46, 15 September 2007 (UTC) :::Gilbert killed over 300 people in Mexico, I think that kinda sealed that deal Jamaica just was a little icing on the cake. The WMO started using drugs in the early 1990's. They retired Klaus, which killed four people and then they didn't retire Tropical Storm Bret in 1993 which killed 122 people in Venezuela, nor did they retire Gert, which killed 70-90 in Mexico. Then the whole Gordon thing in 1994 which is inexcusable. Gordon was nothing short of an outrage. Period. Other than those, the only other blatent non-retirement I can think of was 1955's Hilda. -- [[User:SkyFury|''Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 00:46, 16 September 2007 (UTC) ::::You always talk about Gordon dontchya? That was kind of a large blunder on their part. I think it has to do with being a very weak storm at that stage. It's almost like Jeanne (although she was retired). I hold my estimates, though, and plus or minus ten is applicable to Dean and Felix. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']]Talk 00:59, 16 September 2007 (UTC) :::::Yeah, I lost a significant amount of respect for the WMO after I heard about Gordon and you bring up a good point about the intensity. I think Bret wasn't retired for the same reason. I think it took the Allison disaster to make the WMO realize that a tropical storm could actually do significant damage and that it wasn't just negligence. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 18:55, 16 September 2007 (UTC) We're lucky something like that hasn't happened again. There might actually be a third hit around there; a lot of models are predicting something to go through there. This is a really sucky year weather-wise. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']]Talk 19:10, 16 September 2007 (UTC) :Third hit where? -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 23:38, 16 September 2007 (UTC) ::You guys are wrong about Chantal, BTW IMO. It caused around 5 million dollars in damage in the area around Placentia Bay. Its residents are still angry the government didn't do enough. So it's not entirely forgettable. Thus, I give it a 3% chance. 2007Astro'sHurricane 00:00, 17 September 2007 (UTC) :::"Storm does less damage than Bill Gates does annually! Global crisis at hand!" WMO does NOT have enough money for all that crack. Third hit Texas. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']]Talk 00:28, 17 September 2007 (UTC) Keep in mind that the WMO can't retire a hurricane if no affected country nominate it for retirement, IIRC. I believe I heard Mexico was pretty poor on nominating...--132.211.210.107 23:07, 18 September 2007 (UTC) :Gert in 1993 was not nominated. Not sure about Bret. Gordon ''was nominated. Hurricane Klaus was nominated not by the U.S, but by Guadalupe. There was supposedly some damage to historic structures there but I don't really know the reasoning behind its nomination. Several Pacific retirements are a mystery too (Knut, Iva, Fefa, Fico). -- [[User:SkyFury|''Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 23:50, 18 September 2007 (UTC) ::Here's my stats: ::Andrea:5% or lower - The storm did nothing much, just a couple fatalitites and .77 inches of rain. ::Barry:5% or lower -Unless a report comes out of substantial damage, I'd put a no on this one. ::Chantal:12.5%- 5.5 million in NFL is not much, although its got a say in what it wants to do with the name. ::Dean: 95-100%- Couple billion in damage, over 40 deaths, pretty much a retired name. ::Erin: 15% - When and if the TCR comes out, the damage total could be substantial enough for retirement. We'll have to wait however. ::Felix: 90-95%- Damage report will come out at some point, also 130+ deaths. ::Gabrielle: 5% or lower - Pretty much the same as Andrea. ::Humberto: 15-20% - If that 900 million was correct, we could've had a retirement here. Let's wait for the TCR. ::Ingrid: 0% - First fishspinner of the season, Not a chance. ::Jerry: 0% - Second fishspinner of the season, Not a chance. ::Karen: Unknown - Hasn't affected land yet, and very weak ::Lorenzo: Unknown - Wait till damage reports come out. So far that's my stats.Mitchazenia 20:55, 28 September 2007 (UTC) For such a "quiet" season, we've had one hectic September! Eight named Atlantic storms so far this month, and the initial NHC advisory/discussion for TD #14 indicates the possible arrival of Melissa on Sunday (30 September). Even the infamous 2007 had only five named storms in September... Whew! 147.70.242.40 15:47, 28 September 2007 (UTC) :You mean 2005, of course. Of course, that's an excellent point, one that also applies well to a season about five years back, where the record this season will almost certainly tie was set. I predict, however, that there will be some more intense storms even after the end of September. This isn't your ordinary season, that's a pretty much universal concept. And could all you anons who post so many things get a username? It's not easy to quote "147.70.242.40"! [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']]Talk 19:02, 28 September 2007 (UTC) ::Some people cherish their anonymity :) 67.155.250.26 20:11, 28 September 2007 (UTC) :::Then we'll just have to give you userpages and nicknames ; ). But a good point has been made often on Wikipedia that you have more anonymity if people don't know what your IP address is. You could also do what I did. Back on topic though, I don't think this season yet qualifies as "quiet" either ; ). [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']]Talk 20:42, 28 September 2007 (UTC) I created my first account! [[User:HurricaneJosh|'PI']]Talk 01:43, 30 September 2007 (UTC) :Now, if only we can persuade the rest of them >: ) [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']]Talk 11:37, 30 September 2007 (UTC) ::Quiet my ass. This season has been decidedly unquiet. We've had 13 storms and it's not quite October yet, two Category 5s and eight storms this September, which matches a record. There's been nothing quiet about this season. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 19:28, 30 September 2007 (UTC) :::The real reason for the claims of "quiet" is the lack of hurricanes, which can be explained by all of the tropical cyclones except two forming in high shear or close to land. Back to you, Eric. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']](Talk) [[User:68-100-190-56/Looking_to_the_Eye_of_the_Storm|(''The Project)]] 20:24, 30 September 2007 (UTC) ::::At this time in 2001, the Atlantic season had this exact same number of hurricanes and finished with nine. Also, I believe Karen was briefly a hurricane. It's impossible to know what October will bring. It was the most active month in 2005, with seven storms including the strongest storm ever measured in the Atlantic and three other hurricanes. Go tell the folks in Nicaragua it's been a quiet season. -- [[User:SkyFury|''Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 22:51, 30 September 2007 (UTC) And with the SSTs not cooling down any time soon, you probably have a good point there, Eric. Currently, wind shear is also looking good for the Caribbean, which is the breeding ground of October storms. Cape Verde is starting to cool down, which is a sign we'll probably have some typical October storms, probably a few more majors still out there, eh? This has been your 7:45 news update on the 2007 False Accusation scandal. And here's our other forecasters with their predictions. Signing off, this is Internet Protocol. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']](Talk) [[User:68-100-190-56/Looking_to_the_Eye_of_the_Storm|(''The Project)]] 23:48, 30 September 2007 (UTC)